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Reviews of publications on Info-Gap decision theory

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Review # 1 (Posted: April 5, 2009; Last update: April 10, 2009)

Reference:	Ben-Haim, Y. Info-Gap Decision Theory: decisions under severe uncertainty Academic Press, 2006 Information-Gap Decision Theory: decisions under severe uncertainty Academic Press, 2001
Scores	TUIGF:100% SNHNSNDN:200% GIGO:100%

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These are the two editions of the Info-Gap book. I shall refer to the second edition.

A number of my colleagues who are also critical of Info-Gap decision theory have long suggested that I review this book. However, at present I do not plan to do this. The reason is simple: the book abounds with so much empty rhetoric and spin that an "official" review will require concentrating on the rhetoric to the detriment of a detailed treatment of the more urgent failings of this theory. At this stage, therefore, I prefer to focus only on the theoretical, methodological and technical aspects of Info-Gap decision theory.

Readers who are interested to see how spin and hollow rhetoric play out in this literature can visit other pages on my site where some references are made to this aspect of the Info-Gap enterprise:

• http://voodoo.moshe-online.com: A general discussion on voodoo decision theories


• http://robust.moshe-online.com: A general discussion on robust decision-making


• http://www.moshe-online.com/satisficing: A discussion on the "optimize vs satisfice" debate


• http://www.moshe-online.com/responsible: A general discussion on responsible decision-making


• http://www.moshe-online.com/severe_uncertainty: A general discussion on decision-making under severe uncertainty

The comprehensive compilation FAQs about Info-Gap can be viewed as a review of the scientific aspects of Info-Gap decision theory. Please note that a PDF file of this compilation is available. This compilation will serve as core material for my planned book "A Critique of Info-Gap Decision Theory". The spin and rhetoric aspects of Info-Gap will be discussed in the planned manuscript "The Rise and Rise of Voodoo Decision-Making".

So, stay tuned ...

Note:
The super-high SNHNSNDN scored by the book is due to the erroneous analysis of the relationship between Info-Gap and Maximin, and the claim that Info-Gap's robustness analysis is not a Maximin analysis (page 93).

Other Reviews

1. Ben-Haim (2001, 2006): Info-Gap Decision Theory: decisions under severe uncertainty.


2. Regan et al (2005): Robust decision-making under severe uncertainty for conservation management.


3. Moilanen et al (2006): Planning for robust reserve networks using uncertainty analysis.


4. Burgman (2008): Shakespeare, Wald and decision making under severe uncertainty.


5. Ben-Haim and Demertzis (2008): Confidence in monetary policy.


6. Hall and Harvey (2009): Decision making under severe uncertainty for flood risk management: a case study of info-gap robustness analysis.


7. Ben-Haim (2009): Info-gap forecasting and the advantage of sub-optimal models.


8. Yokomizo et al (2009): Managing the impact of invasive species: the value of knowing the density-impact curve.


9. Davidovitch et al (2009): Info-gap theory and robust design of surveillance for invasive species: The case study of Barrow Island.


10. Ben-Haim et al (2009): Do we know how to set decision thresholds for diabetes?


11. Beresford and Thompson (2009): An info-gap approach to managing portfolios of assets with uncertain returns


12. Ben-Haim, Dacso, Carrasco, and Rajan (2009): Heterogeneous uncertainties in cholesterol management


13. Rout, Thompson, and McCarthy (2009): Robust decisions for declaring eradication of invasive species


14. Ben-Haim (2010): Info-Gap Economics: An Operational Introduction


15. Hine and Hall (2010): Information gap analysis of flood model uncertainties and regional frequency analysis


16. Ben-Haim (2010): Interpreting Null Results from Measurements with Uncertain Correlations: An Info-Gap Approach


17. Wintle et al. (2010): Allocating monitoring effort in the face of unknown unknowns

Recent Articles, Working Papers, Notes

Also, see my complete list of articles

• Sniedovich, M., (2010) A classic decision theoretic perspective on worst-case analysis, Applications of Mathematics, in press.


• Sniedovich, M., (2010) Black swans, new Nostradamuses, voodoo decision theories and the science of decision-making in the face of severe uncertainty, International Transactions in Operations Research, in press.


• Sniedovich, M., (2010) A bird's view of Info-Gap decision theory, Journal of Risk Finance, 11(3), 268-283.


• Sniedovich, M. (2010) Dynamic programming: introductory concepts, in Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science (EORMS), Wiley, in press.


• Sniedovich, M., (2010) Dynamic Programming: Foundations and Principles, Second Edition,, Francis and Taylor, in press.


• Caserta, M., Voss, S., Sniedovich, M. (2010) Applying the corridor method to a blocks relocation problem, OR Spectrum, in press.


• Sniedovich M. (2009) Modeling of robustness against severe uncertainty, pp. 33- 42, Proceedings of the 10th International Symposium on Operational Research, SOR'09, Nova Gorica, Slovenia, September 23-25, 2009.


• Sniedovich M. (2009) A Critique of Info-Gap Robustness Model. In: Martorell et al. (eds), Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Theory, Methods and Applications, pp. 2071-2079, Taylor and Francis Group, London.
.

• Sniedovich M. (2009) A Classical Decision Theoretic Perspective on Worst-Case Analysis, Working Paper No. MS-03-09, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, (PDF File)


• Caserta, M., Voss, S., Sniedovich, M. (2008) The corridor method - A general solution concept with application to the blocks relocation problem. In: A. Bruzzone, F. Longo, Y. Merkuriev, G. Mirabelli and M.A. Piera (eds.), 11th International Workshop on Harbour, Maritime and Multimodal Logistics Modeling and Simulation, DIPTEM, Genova, 89-94.


• Sniedovich, M. (2008) FAQS about Info-Gap Decision Theory, Working Paper No. MS-12-08, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, (PDF File)


• Sniedovich, M. (2008) A Call for the Reassessment of the Use and Promotion of Info-Gap Decision Theory in Australia (PDF File)


• Sniedovich, M. (2008) Info-Gap decision theory and the small applied world of environmental decision-making, Working Paper No. MS-11-08
  This is a response to comments made by Mark Burgman on my criticism of Info-Gap (PDF file )


• Sniedovich, M. (2008) A call for the reassessment of Info-Gap decision theory, Decision Point, 24, 10.


• Sniedovich, M. (2008) From Shakespeare to Wald: modeling wors-case analysis in the face of severe uncertainty, Decision Point, 22, 8-9.


• Sniedovich, M. (2008) Wald's Maximin model: a treasure in disguise!, Journal of Risk Finance, 9(3), 287-291.


• Sniedovich, M. (2008) Anatomy of a Misguided Maximin formulation of Info-Gap's Robustness Model (PDF File)
  In this paper I explain, again, the misconceptions that Info-Gap proponents seem to have regarding the relationship between Info-Gap's robustness model and Wald's Maximin model.


• Sniedovich. M. (2008) The Mighty Maximin! (PDF File)
  This paper is dedicated to the modeling aspects of Maximin and robust optimization.


• Sniedovich, M. (2007) The art and science of modeling decision-making under severe uncertainty, Decision Making in Manufacturing and Services, 1-2, 111-136. (PDF File) .


• Sniedovich, M. (2007) Crystal-Clear Answers to Two FAQs about Info-Gap (PDF File)
  In this paper I examine the two fundamental flaws in Info-Gap decision theory, and the flawed attempts to shrug off my criticism of Info-Gap decision theory.


• My reply (PDF File) to Ben-Haim's response to one of my papers. (April 22, 2007)

  This is an exciting development!

  • Ben-Haim's response confirms my assessment of Info-Gap. It is clear that Info-Gap is fundamentally flawed and therefore unsuitable for decision-making under severe uncertainty.
  
  
  • Ben-Haim is not familiar with the fundamental concept point estimate. He does not realize that a function can be a point estimate of another function.

    So when you read my papers make sure that you do not misinterpret the notion point estimate. The phrase "A is a point estimate of B" simply means that A is an element of the same topological space that B belongs to. Thus, if B is say a probability density function and A is a point estimate of B, then A is a probability density function belonging to the same (assumed) set (family) of probability density functions.

    Ben-Haim mistakenly assumes that a point estimate is a point in a Euclidean space and therefore a point estimate cannot be say a function. This is incredible!



• A formal proof that Info-Gap is Wald's Maximin Principle in disguise. (December 31, 2006)
  This is a very short article entitled Eureka! Info-Gap is Worst Case (maximin) in Disguise! (PDF File)
  It shows that Info-Gap is not a new theory but rather a simple instance of Wald's famous Maximin Principle dating back to 1945, which in turn goes back to von Neumann's work on Maximin problems in the context of Game Theory (1928).


• A proof that Info-Gap's uncertainty model is fundamentally flawed. (December 31, 2006)
  This is a very short article entitled The Fundamental Flaw in Info-Gap's Uncertainty Model (PDF File) .
  It shows that because Info-Gap deploys a single point estimate under severe uncertainty, there is no reason to believe that the solutions it generates are likely to be robust.


• A math-free explanation of the flaw in Info-Gap. ( December 31, 2006)
  This is a very short article entitled The GAP in Info-Gap (PDF File) .
  It is a math-free version of the paper above. Read it if you are allergic to math.


• A long essay entitled What's Wrong with Info-Gap? An Operations Research Perspective (PDF File) (December 31, 2006).
  This is a paper that I presented at the ASOR Recent Advances in Operations Research (PDF File) mini-conference (December 1, 2006, Melbourne, Australia).

Recent Lectures, Seminars, Presentations

If your organization is promoting Info-Gap, I suggest that you invite me for a seminar at your place. I promise to deliver a lively, informative, entertaining and convincing presentation explaining why it is not a good idea to use — let alone promote — Info-Gap as a decision-making tool.

Here is a list of relevant lectures/seminars on this topic that I gave in the last two years.

• Black Swans, Modern Nostradamuses, Voodoo Decision Theories, and the Science of Decision-Making in the Face of Severe Uncertainty (PDF File) .
  (Invited tutorial, ALIO/INFORMS Conference, Buenos Aires, Argentina, July 6-9, 2010).


• A Critique of Info-Gap Decision theory: From Voodoo Decision-Making to Voodoo Economics(PDF File) .
  (Recent Advances in OR, RMIT, Melbourne, Australia, November 25, 2009)


• Robust decision-making in the face of severe uncertainty(PDF File) .
  (GRIPS, Tokyo, Japan, October 16, 2009)


• Decision-making in the face of severe uncertainty(PDF File) .
  (KORDS'09 Conference, Vilnius, Lithuania, September 30 -- OCtober 3, 2009)


• Modeling robustness against severe uncertainty (PDF File) .
  (SOR'09 Conference, Nova Gorica, Slovenia, September 23-25, 2009)


• How do you recognize a Voodoo decision theory?(PDF File) .
  (School of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences, RMIT, June 26, 2009).


• Black Swans, Modern Nostradamuses, Voodoo Decision Theories, Info-Gaps, and the Science of Decision-Making in the Face of Severe Uncertainty (PDF File) .
  (Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University, May 8, 2009).


• The Rise and Rise of Voodoo Decision Theory.
  ASOR Recent Advances, Deakin University, November 26, 2008. This presentation was based on the pages on my website (voodoo.moshe-online.com).


• Responsible Decision-Making in the face of Severe Uncertainty (PDF File) .
  (Singapore Management University, Singapore, September 29, 2008)


• A Critique of Info-Gap's Robustness Model (PDF File) .
  (ESREL/SRA 2008 Conference, Valencia, Spain, September 22-25, 2008)


• Robust Decision-Making in the Face of Severe Uncertainty (PDF File) .
  (Technion, Haifa, Israel, September 15, 2008)


• The Art and Science of Robust Decision-Making (PDF File) .
  (AIRO 2008 Conference, Ischia, Italy, September 8-11, 2008 )


• The Fundamental Flaws in Info-Gap Decision Theory (PDF File) .
  (CSIRO, Canberra, July 9, 2008 )


• Responsible Decision-Making in the Face of Severe Uncertainty (PDF File) .
  (OR Conference, ADFA, Canberra, July 7-8, 2008 )


• Responsible Decision-Making in the Face of Severe Uncertainty (PDF File) .
  (University of Sydney Seminar, May 16, 2008 )


• Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty: An Australian, Operational Research Perspective (PDF File) .
  (ASOR National Conference, Melbourne, December 3-5, 2007 )


• A Critique of Info-Gap (PDF File) .
  (SRA 2007 Conference, Hobart, August 20, 2007)


• What exactly is wrong with Info-Gap? A Decision Theoretic Perspective (PDF File) .
  (MS Colloquium, University of Melbourne, August 1, 2007)


• A Formal Look at Info-Gap Theory (PDF File) .
  (ORSUM Seminar , University of Melbourne, May 21, 2007)


• The Art and Science of Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty (PDF File) .
  (ACERA seminar, University of Melbourne, May 4, 2007)


• What exactly is Info-Gap? An OR perspective. (PDF File)
  ASOR Recent Advances in Operations Research mini-conference (December 1, 2006, Melbourne, Australia).

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