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The End of the IGDT Affair (2003-2014) in the Land of the Black Swan

At the end of 2006 I launched a campaign whose main objective was to contain the spread of info-gap decision theory (IGDT) in Australia. I took this somewhat unorthodox step after my repeated informal, behind the scenes, attempts (2003-2006) to convince my colleagues that this theory was fundamentally flawed proved ineffective.

The objective of this post is to announce the end of my IGDT campaign in Australia (2003-2014), to explain the reasons for this decision, and to make it clear that the focus of this campaign will now shift to other "academic arenas" in the USA, UK, China, and so on

The principal reason for my decision to (officially) bring my Australian campaign to a close was the appearance of a number of publications which clearly demonstrated that my unrelenting efforts to put across to academics and practitioners alike the hard facts about IGDT were starting to bear fruit.

Thus, the first important breakthrough for my campaign occurred with the publication of the comprehensive report entitled Uncertainty and Uncertainty Analysis Methods (Hayes 2011) which essentially supports my criticism of IGDT. This was followed by the publication of the peer-reviewed article Severe uncertainty and info-gap decision theory (Hayes et al. 2013) that was based on this report.

The next breakthrough occurred on May 14, 2014, when David Fox, a one-time IGDT follower, posted a short note entitled Information-gap decision theory creates a gap in ecological applications and then fills it in which he explained, among other things, why he changed his position regarding IGDT.

See my response to David's post.

From my standpoint, though, the most significant development to date was the publication of a peer-reviewed article, by an Australian scholar, a former advocate of IGDT which explains why the author reconsidered his position on IGDT.

I am referring to the peer-reviewed article Contending with uncertainty in conservation management decisions (McCarthy 2014).

See my response to this article.

It ought to be pointed out, though, that although McCarthy's (2014) assessment of IGDT and his comments on my criticism of it are certainly problematic, his article is nevertheless sufficiently clear about his acceptance of my position that: IGDT is a reinvention of the wheel. He is also sufficiently clear about accepting my arguments that IGDT is incapable of "delivering the goods", namely of performing the task for which it was designed.

In short, there is now sufficient published material, by Australian scholars, supporting my criticism of IGDT to encourage the hope that the promotion and use of this theory in Australia will finally come to an end.

Of course, given my experience of the last ten years or so, I shall not be surprised if some IGDT followers in Australia will remain committed to this theory, no matter what, e.g. the Letter to the Editor Information-gap decision theory fills a gap in ecological applications (Burgman and Regan 2014).

See my response to this Letter.

Still, the latest developments show that the focus of the discourse on IGDT in Australia can now shift from a discussion about its flaws to the lessons that ought to be learned from this affair.

I therefore announce the closing of my IGDT campaign in Australia (2003-2014).

Postscript

In line with my previous calls for the Reassessment of the Use and Promotion of IGDT in Australia I take this opportunity to issue a

Second Call for the Assessment of The Lessons Learned from the Info-Gap Experience in Australia (2003-2014)

Such an assessment should prove especially beneficial to scholars/analysts who continue to hold that IGDT's robustness model is new, hence in need of accreditation, as well as to those who do not appreciate the implications that the concept radius of stability and therefore the maximin paradigm have for IGDT's robustness model.

It should also prove beneficial to those who do not appreciate the distinction between local and global robustness and its implications of a correct assessment of IGDT and its ecological applications.

And it should definitely prove beneficial to scholars/analysts who are in search for a non-existent gap in the state of the art for IGDT to fill.

Anyone interested in taking part in such an Assessment can contact me via e-mail.

Moshe Sniedovich
Melbourne, Australia
The Land of the Black Swan

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